‘Vision California’ calls for compact, resource-conserving development

A set of proposals described by the San Francisco Chronicle as “the state’s first major planning document in almost 30 years” urges California to concentrate future housing development in cities and near public transit — a shift that could reduce its greenhouse gas emissions 17 percent by 2035.

The plan, “Charting Our Future,” was released in late June by an entity called Vision California and is the basis for a statewide campaign for much tighter, more efficient patterns of community development. Calthorpe Associates in Berkeley prepared the plan for Vision California with funds from the California High-Speed Rail Authority and the Strategic Growth Council, a Cabinet-level group that Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger directed to develop a state blueprint for growth.

The report uses scenario planning — a method that Calthorpe Associates has applied to regional planning efforts in Utah and elsewhere — to lay out the economic and environmental benefits of developing in a compact manner.

Under a “Business as Usual” scenario, Californians by 2050 would travel nearly 183 billion more miles and use over 65 billion additional gallons of gasoline per year than they would if the state pursued a “Growing Smart” scenario, according to the analysis. The compact, transit-served “Growing Smart” pattern would allow the state’s residents to reduce their annual household costs for gas, auto maintenance, and household utility bills by 45 percent.

Other benefits of compact development include these:

• Households could save $6,400 annually in auto and utility costs by driving less and living in homes that consume less water and energy.

• Cities and counties could save $4.3 billion annually on infrastructure costs by building more compact neighborhoods.

“This analysis dries home the enormous costs at stake for Californians,” said Darrell Steinberg, president pro tempore of the California State Senate and author of SB 375, the state’s smart growth law.

The project has been developing two new tools — an “Urban Footprint” map-based model and a “Rapid Fire” spreadsheet-based instrument — to formulate and compare scenarios for how California can accommodate the growth of its population to 60 million by 2050.

“Since June, we have been presenting our Vision California Rapid fire scenarios in venues across the state,” said Joe DiStefano of Calthorpe Associates. The scenarios, he said, have helped in drafting regional targets for greenhouse gas emissions. The scenarios and regional calibrations have informed people’s understanding of what levels of reductions in vehicle miles traveled and greenhouse gas emissions are “aggressive and achievable,” DiStefano explained.

With the Greenbelt Alliance, the Silicon Valley Community Foundation, and TransForm (an advocacy nonprofit group), Calthorpe Associates has been developing scenarios for the Bay Area that explore not only land use and transit investment possibilities but also jobs-housing balance, housing market segmentation, and approaches to infill and reinvestment. Scenarios will be released to the public through an  interactive website, public radio coverage, and workshops this fall, according to DiStefano.

The Chronicle said in June that “even though the report is only a recommendation with no teeth, the plan takes direct aim at development politics in California, where cities and regions have for decades insisted on having the autonomy to develop their own growth initiatives.”