Calthorpe Associates of Berkeley, California, has concluded two

Calthorpe Associates of Berkeley, California, has concluded two years of regional visioning in Minneapolis/St. Paul and presented the Smart Growth Twin Cities development scenarios to the Metropolitan Council, the area’s regional planning agency. Input from public workshops — where citizens and other stakeholders envision future growth patterns with the use of maps and “chips” that represent increments of various types of development — formed the basis for the proposed alternative growth scenarios. As a baseline for the scenario modeling, the Calthorpe team used 193 comprehensive plans from municipalities in the region. The current, predominantly auto-oriented patterns of growth would consume 286 square miles of land over the next 30 years, the Calthorpe team estimates. The two alternative scenarios have a better balance between auto-oriented development and walkable development along transit corridors, and between single-family and multifamily housing. Land consumption under scenario A is estimated at 152 square miles, while scenario B — with a higher concentration of development in infill locations and next to transit — would consume 136 square miles. All three scenarios would accommodate 280,000 new households and 360,000 jobs. More compact development would also mean substantial savings in infrastructure investment for the Twin Cities region: Scenario B would reduce the cost by $3 billion compared with the current comprehensive plans. The Metropolitan Council does not have the authority to dictate growth patterns in municipalities, so implementation of a new blueprint for growth will need the support of whoever wins the gubernatorial election this fall.