Demand for walkable neighborhoods primed to boom

Research at the University of Southern California finds that demographics and social change are brewing up tremendous demand for "dense, walkable neighborhoods." Researchers at the University of Southern California have released a study that predicts a booming demand for new urbanist construction over the next decade. The study examines the interactions between current preferences, changing demographics, increasing experience with smart growth and the New Urbanism, and other factors. Based on these criteria, the authors determine a “mid-range” estimate of future demand for “dense residential neighborhoods.” Principal investigator Dowell Myers and three other USC researchers find that an increasing proportion of the homebuying and renting public is likely to want “walkable” or “smart growth” communities. This conclusion follows from a combination of several statistical trends. The study, sponsored by the Funders Network for Smart Growth, first summarizes current research on consumer preferences. While recognizing the current majority preference for conventional suburban development, the researchers state that existing research shows a substantial portion of the public preferring other alternatives. Previous surveys show that 40 percent of the public prefer something other than a single family home; 57 percent want lots of 1/6 acre or smaller; and over a quarter wants smaller lots and/or clustered development. There are also the 33 percent who want “narrow streets, sidewalks, and shared recreation facilities” rather than “larger lots and wider streets.” Though they are minorities, they add up to far more consumers than new development is currently satisfying. The study's low-range estimate of future demand is based on national demographics. There are certain groups that currently seek out denser, more walkable environments. The scholars find that those groups — young households, empty nesters and retirees — are growing fast. If they maintain their current levels of preference, there will continue to be growth in demand for the New Urbanism. Demand rises with age For example, homebuyers with children are far more likely to want a suburban home, but the percentage of households with children is dropping. It was almost 35 percent in 1995, but is predicted to go down to 28 percent by 2015. Older households have much more positive feelings about living in a townhouse near transit than younger households. The 55-64 age bracket is growing from 12.5 percent of the nation in 1995 to about 18.6 percent in 2015. The increase in demand will be much more extreme if the study's “mid-range” predictions come true. The scholars developed their mid-range estimate based on other political, social, and demographic changes. Current consumer surveys show that today, only a minority of the public wants to live in walkable neighborhoods. But their preferences shift powerfully in that direction when exposed to such environments through visual preference surveys and personal experience. For example, the scholars point out that townhouses are more popular in surveys of people in Washington and Seattle than of people in Phoenix, who are less likely to have seen a well-designed townhouse neighborhood. As actual new urbanist projects are built in more areas, this personal knowledge of alternatives is bound to increase. The scholars note that this process has been documented among municipal planners — once they have dealt with a new urbanist project, they have overwhelmingly positive opinions about such projects in general. The authors say that increasing traffic congestion is already encouraging people to live closer to work. They speculate that as congestion worsens, there could be an increasing demand for residential locations with workplaces within walking distance, making mixed-use neighborhoods more appealing. The study also points to a variety of other factors that could make older cities and inner suburbs appealing for upscale residents. Urban crime is decreasing, removing a major impediment to urban living for many Americans with the resources to choose where to live. The immigrant culture in older neighborhoods is appealing to the 74 percent of potential homebuyers who say they “want a town with a rich mixture of housing styles and a variety of people and lifestyles.” Additionally, café culture has grown in North America. This report suggests that walkable neighborhoods have been made more appealing by the presence of coffeeshops, and that “other amenity-oriented retail shops or upscale convenience stores may cluster in districts anchored by a Starbucks or another coffee house.” This trend ties in with the cultural trend toward higher-density housing as a fashionable place to live for the upper-middle class. “Decreasing amounts of developable land, growing emphasis on smart growth, and neotraditional urban design” are given credit for simultaneously increasing the supply of denser housing while increasing demand for it. The USC team concludes that the period from 2005 to 2015 “appears optimal for construction of residential housing that will serve the needs of older households seeking alternatives to conventional suburban development.” CNU will be following up on this research to make sure that financing and development interests hear this message.