End of ‘fossil-fuel fiesta’ will shake up planning, Kunstler tells CNU

New urbanists will have to work on a smaller scale and abandon greenfield projects in the future, author James Howard Kunstler predicted in a speech to the Congress for the New Urbanism in Philadelphia in mid-May. Kunstler, who is popular among new urbanists for his books on the urban scene, has in recent years become a well-known proponent of theories that oil production has peaked or will soon peak and that natural gas will also be in short supply. His book The Long Emergency predicts dire economic and social consequences from the coming decline in world energy production. At CNU he presented detailed evidence that the petroleum industry can no longer significantly increase production and that it “may have begun to decline in the fall of 2005.” The most controversial parts of his analysis connect the end of what he calls “the fossil-fuel fiesta” to a reversal of fortune for modern society. “Much of what we take for granted in our society — economic growth, automobile and air-travel — will become much more difficult and unreliable,” he said. Financial markets, which are based on faith in steady economic growth, are likely to unravel, he believes. The current financial instruments that drive huge projects will no longer be available, he said, warning, “Development at increments of several hundred acres or maybe even 50 acres may not be possible in the years ahead.” Kunstler urged new urbanists to think about how development and demographics will change as a result. Kunstler sees traditional neighborhood development (TND) as a transitional idea bridging the automobile-based, large-scale development of the 20th and early 21st centuries and the small-scale infill that will take place in future decades. TND has recaptured the art and science of city and town building, but still takes for granted an automobile-dominant culture with easy financing, he says. Projects with brilliant schemes for hiding structured parking still devote 20 to 30 percent of their costs to parking, he noted. “They are still expecting that we will need all of that infrastructure. The likelihood is that we will not be doing all of that motoring.” big project era coming to a close? Development on the block or multiple-block scale will no longer work in many cases, he said, and we need to “restore the building lot as the normal increment of development. Huge projects will not be financeable.” He predicted the demise of production builders — many of whom were represented in the audience. One attendee commented sarcastically, “better take away my shoelaces, I might as well end it all right now.” Others took that and similar forecasts in stride. “Forget about skyscrapers and megastructures — we won’t be able to heat them,” Kunstler declared, adding, “We need to think about the building typologies that we can really depend upon to heat.” Kunstler also predicted a reversal of the 200-year trend of people moving from small towns and villages to cities. “We will be farming on smaller increments,” he said. “The likelihood is more people in the landscape. Agricultural economy will be closer to the center of US life.”