Given a choice, buyers will come

New study sends message to developers and public officials: there is a market demand for new compact development in Southeastern Pennsylvania. Builders and developers in the Philadelphia metropolitan area have taken notice of the potential for new urbanist development. The reason is a first-of-a-kind study which looked at the market potential for mixed-use, compact, pedestrian-oriented development on the scale of a large metropolitan region. The results of the study, which was funded by the Greenspace Alliance of Southeastern Pennsylvania and 10,000 Friends of Pennsylvania, have moved local home builders to join the two groups in promoting compact and sustainable development and changes in land-use laws. This unprecedented alliance will hold a workshop in late March or early April 2000. The study, conducted by the market research firm Zimmerman/Volk Associates (ZVA), goes beyond asking consumers if they have an interest in new urbanist housing. It estimates how many households within a specific area have the potential to purchase or rent new housing units in a given price range and takes into account how likely these people are to move. The study also breaks this population into three main demographic groups, empty nesters, families, and singles/young families, and predicts what kind of housing these groups are likely to prefer. This level of detail makes the study persuasive to builders who until now have assumed that most home buyers abhor greater density. ZVA analyzed four locations for new construction: 1) two small sites in West Philadelphia; 2) a 2.3-acre property in Yeadon, a first-ring suburb; 3) a 120-acre redevelopment in Phoenixville, a suburban city; and 4) a 300-acre greenfield site known as Ludwig’s Corner in West Vincent Township, Chester County. All but one of the sites, Ludwig’s Corner, can be described as “infill.” The greenfield location was included because it is an actual development in planning, and the site is similar to the suburban locations where most developers operate. The firm suggested the optimal housing mix for each site (see table). The study applies only to market-rate housing and does not analyze the cost of building the New Urbanism. Mark McGuigan, director of the Greenspace Alliance, says some builders are still worried that new urbanist development will be more expensive than conventional sprawl. At a public presentation of the study, Todd Zimmerman of ZVA maintained that reduced infrastructure costs for compact, mixed-use development can make up for higher up-front planning costs. Southeastern Pennsylvania is the site of at least seven projects using new urbanist design principles. Six are in planning (three infill and three greenfield), and one – The Gardens in Chester County – is under construction and selling relatively well.