Housing prices projected to rise in 2013
House prices will begin to rise in 2013, and housing starts will nearly double by 2014, according to an Urban Land Institute survey of 38 real estate economists and analysts across the US. The ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast, which is predicated on a belief in improvement in the overall economy, says that “2012 could mark the beginning of a turnaround — albeit a slow one.”
“Single-family housing starts, which have been near record lows over the past three years, are projected to reach 500,000 in 2012, 600,000 in 2013, and 800,000 in 2014,” ULI says. An accumulation of foreclosed properties is expected to continue to hobble the hardest-hit markets, however.
“A slight cooling trend in the apartment sector — the investors’ darling for the past two years — is seen in the survey results,” ULI added.
ULI’s forecast is much cheerier than the view of Yale economist Robert Shiller, who in late March told The Daily Ticker, “There’s a real chance we’re in a sort of Japan-like slump that will go on for years and years.” Shiller is co-creator of the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which showed that as of the end of January, housing prices in the previous 12 months had fallen 3.8 percent on a year-over-year basis.
