Looking backward and forward

Change in land use practice takes time. It is frustrating to watch an innovative development move forward at a glacial pace, or to see a handful of municipalities adopt new urbanist planning codes — while knowing that mixed-use neighborhoods remain illegal in thousands of other communities. Watching a flower bloom is excruciatingly slow in real time but wonderful with the aid of time-lapse photography. Similarly, the New Urbanism (NU) must be viewed with the equivalent of time-lapse photography — say, in 10 year increments — to clearly see the trend’s progress and potential. 20 years ago In 1980, Seaside, the first new urbanist community, was being designed on the Florida Panhandle. 10 years ago In 1990, progress was still slow. One project — Seaside — was substantially under construction (several streets were complete, and the town center was just underway). A handful of other projects, e.g. Kentlands, Harbor Town, and Laguna West, were in planning or very early stages of construction. The trend was starting to gain notoriety. Seaside made the cover of The Atlantic in 1988, an article that inspired many designers and developers. Year 2000 Some amazing things have happened. NU can boast close to 150 new towns, neighborhoods, and town centers under construction or built nationwide. Even more impressive is the way the trend has shaped public discussion over land use. The term “New Urbanism” was coined in the early 1990s, and the Congress for the New Urbanism first met in 1993, bringing together a small group of like-minded architects, planners, developers, and public officials. Now, almost every day one can find an article in a mainstream publication somewhere in the US referring to NU. 10 years from now By 2010, NU will have a direct impact on the lives of many Americans. Conventional suburban development will still dominate the landscape to a large degree, but every major metropolitan region will have quality new urbanist neighborhoods underway. This will give ordinary people new choices in living, working, shopping, and recreation. Studies will prove that new urbanist neighborhoods substantially reduce automobile dependence. NU, along with public education reform and reductions in crime, will play a key role in the ongoing recovery of cities. New urbanist developments will provide shelter and amenities for a new wave of city dwellers. Due to new urbanist ideas, public housing will become a respectable living option for the poor. Transit-oriented developments will become ubiquitous nationwide, and essential to transit policy. Benefits to transit agencies, developers, citizens, and the environment will be proven. Aging towns and placeless suburbs will be revitalized with mixed-use, walkable town centers. Codes designed to allow NU will be adopted by most municipalities. Bankers, developers, and builders will be comfortable with NU. Hybrid developments will proliferate. By 2010, nearly every conventional project will be influenced by NU. Distinguishing between genuine NU and the conventional projects will be an ongoing challenge. Increased competition among developers and lower perceived risk will put downward pressure on home prices and rents in new urbanist projects. Many critics of NU will claim that they were always for it. They will congratulate new urbanists for addressing their criticisms in terms of financial viability, revitalizing cities, and improving the environment — problems that only time can solve.